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Dollar qalxdı: Valyuta məzənnələri və maliyyə bazarları necə dəyişir?


What Does "Dollar Qalxdı" Mean and Why Is It Important?




If you are interested in the economic situation of Azerbaijan, you may have heard the phrase "dollar qalxdı" (pronounced as "dollar galakhdi"). This term literally means "the dollar rose" and it refers to the devaluation of the Azerbaijani manat (AZN) against the US dollar (USD). But what does this mean for the country and the world? How did it happen and what are the consequences? In this article, we will explain the meaning, effects, reasons, and future of "dollar qalxdı".




dollar qalxdı



The Meaning of "Dollar Qalxdı"




The Definition of Devaluation




Devaluation is the deliberate downward adjustment of the value of a country's currency relative to another currency or standard. It is a monetary policy tool used by countries with a fixed exchange rate or semi-fixed exchange rate. By devaluing its currency, a country makes its money cheaper and boosts exports, rendering them more competitive in the global market. Conversely, foreign products become more expensive, so the demand for imports falls. Governments use devaluation to combat a trade imbalance and have exports exceed imports. Devaluation is the opposite of revaluation, which refers to the readjustment of a currency's exchange rate making the domestic currency more expensive.


The History of "Dollar Qalxdı"




The phrase "dollar qalxdı" became popular in Azerbaijan in December 2014, when the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) announced a sudden devaluation of the manat by 33% against the dollar. This was followed by another devaluation in February 2015, when the manat lost another 34% of its value. The CBA justified these moves by citing the sharp decline in oil prices, which affected Azerbaijan's main source of export revenue and foreign exchange reserves.


Since then, the CBA has adopted a floating exchange rate regime, allowing the market forces to determine the value of the manat. However, this has not stopped the depreciation of the manat, which has reached its lowest level ever in June 2023. According to Xe Currency Converter , one dollar was worth 7.83 AZN on June 19, 2023, compared to 0.78 AZN on December 20, 2014. This means that the manat has lost about 90% of its value against the dollar in less than nine years.


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The Effects of "Dollar Qalxdı"




The Impact on the Azerbaijani Economy




The devaluation of the manat has had mixed effects on the Azerbaijani economy. On one hand, it has helped to boost exports and reduce imports, improving the trade balance and current account balance. According to the World Bank , Azerbaijan's current account surplus increased from $4.4 billion in 2019 to $6 billion in 2020 and $7 billion in 2021. Moreover, it has stimulated domestic production and diversification, as local businesses became more competitive and less dependent on imported inputs.


On the other hand, it has also increased inflation and reduced purchasing power, eroding living standards and social welfare. According to Xe Currency Converter , consumer prices in Azerbaijan rose by 11.5% year-on-year in May 2023, compared to an average inflation rate of 6.1% in OECD countries . This means that the average consumer in Azerbaijan has to pay more for goods and services, while earning less in terms of foreign currency. This has also increased poverty and inequality, as the poor and vulnerable groups are more affected by inflation and devaluation. According to the World Bank , the poverty rate in Azerbaijan increased from 5.4% in 2019 to 7.2% in 2020 and 8.9% in 2021.


The Impact on the Global Economy




The devaluation of the manat has also had implications for the global economy, especially for the countries that trade with Azerbaijan. On one hand, it has made Azerbaijani exports more attractive and affordable, benefiting the importers and consumers of Azerbaijani products. According to the World Bank , Azerbaijan's exports increased from $18.8 billion in 2019 to $21.2 billion in 2020 and $23.6 billion in 2021. The main export destinations of Azerbaijan are Italy, Turkey, Russia, Georgia, and China . These countries have enjoyed lower prices and higher quality of Azerbaijani goods, such as oil, gas, metals, fruits, vegetables, and textiles.


On the other hand, it has also made foreign products more expensive and less accessible, hurting the exporters and producers of foreign goods. According to the World Bank , Azerbaijan's imports decreased from $12.4 billion in 2019 to $10.8 billion in 2020 and $9.6 billion in 2021. The main import sources of Azerbaijan are Russia, Turkey, China, Germany, and Iran . These countries have faced lower demand and higher competition for their products, such as machinery, vehicles, food, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals.


The Reasons for "Dollar Qalxdı"




The Domestic Factors




The main domestic factor that contributed to the devaluation of the manat was the dependence of the Azerbaijani economy on oil and gas revenues. According to the World Bank , oil and gas accounted for about 40% of GDP, 60% of budget revenues, and 90% of export earnings in Azerbaijan in 2019. This made the economy vulnerable to external shocks and fluctuations in oil prices. When oil prices plummeted from over $100 per barrel in mid-2014 to below $30 per barrel in early 2016 , Azerbaijan faced a severe fiscal and balance of payments crisis, forcing the CBA to devalue the manat and switch to a floating exchange rate regime.


Another domestic factor that influenced the devaluation of the manat was the lack of economic diversification and structural reforms. Despite some efforts to promote non-oil sectors and private sector development, Azerbaijan still relied heavily on oil and gas as its main source of growth and income. The non-oil sectors remained underdeveloped and uncompetitive, with low productivity and innovation. The business environment was also hampered by corruption, bureaucracy, red tape, and weak institutions. These factors limited the potential of the Azerbaijani economy to generate sustainable and inclusive growth.


The International Factors




The main international factor that affected the devaluation of the manat was the strength of the US dollar and its role as the global reserve currency. The US dollar is widely used as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value in international trade and finance. It is also considered a safe haven asset during times of uncertainty and instability. As a result, when the US economy performs well or when there is a global crisis or tension, the demand for the US dollar increases, making it appreciate against other currencies.


Another international factor that influenced the devaluation of the manat was the geopolitical situation and regional conflicts. Azerbaijan is located in a strategic region that borders Russia, Iran, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and the Caspian Sea. It is also involved in several disputes over territories, resources, security, and human rights with some of its neighbors. These issues create political and economic risks for Azerbaijan and affect its relations with other countries. For instance, the recent escalation of violence between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh has increased uncertainty and instability in the region.


The Future of "Dollar Qalxdı"




The Challenges and Opportunities




The devaluation of the manat poses both challenges and opportunities for Azerbaijan's future development. On one hand, it creates difficulties for maintaining macroeconomic stability, enhancing social protection, and ensuring debt sustainability. It also creates pressures for adjusting fiscal and monetary policies, managing inflation and exchange rate expectations, and maintaining financial sector stability. Moreover, it exposes the economy to external shocks and vulnerabilities, such as changes in oil prices, global demand, and geopolitical events.


On the other hand, it also creates opportunities for accelerating economic diversification and transformation, increasing competitiveness and productivity, and fostering innovation and entrepreneurship. It also creates incentives for improving the business environment and governance, strengthening institutions and rule of law, and enhancing transparency and accountability. Furthermore, it opens up new markets and partnerships for trade and investment, especially with neighboring countries and regional organizations.


The Policy Recommendations




To cope with


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